Red Badge senior leaders Jack Stewart (GM Guarding & Patrols) and Andy Gollings (Executive Director) recently attended key industry forums, including the Retail Risk Conference and the Retail Security Leaders Forum. These events brought together Police, government officials, and retail leaders to share current intelligence and national trends.
Across all key offence types, Police data shows retail crime continuing to trend downward — a strong signal that what we are doing is working. Improved prevention, closer collaboration between retailers, security teams and Police, and more consistent reporting are all having a measurable impact. Our Lighthouse data reinforces this picture and gives us confidence that focused, disciplined security practice delivers results.
What the data is telling us
Risk is predictable — and timing matters.
Incidents are not random. Mondays and Fridays remain the highest-risk days, with afternoons consistently the busiest period. This reinforces a simple but important point: security presence needs to match known patterns, not assumptions.
The same products continue to be targeted.
Offending remains focused on small, high-value, easily resold items — including consumer electronics, cosmetics, and grocery items. In some environments, Police highlighted links between theft and organised resale activity.
Offending profiles are relatively consistent.
Police data shows an even gender split, with most offending occurring in the late 20s to mid-30s age group. Youth offending remains a concern, particularly where incidents go unreported — limiting the ability for early intervention.
Serious incidents are decreasing — but not disappearing.
Encouragingly, there has been a significant reduction in more serious offences such as ram raids, alongside strong apprehension rates. However, recent incidents show that targeted, opportunistic offending still occurs — often focused on easily accessible goods like cash, cigarettes, and jewellery.
What’s working (and why it matters)
One of the clearest insights from both Police and frontline data is this: Early engagement works.
Simple actions — making eye contact, acknowledging presence, greeting customers — play a powerful role in preventing incidents before they escalate. This is not about enforcement; it’s about visibility, professionalism, and confidence.
The other critical factor is consistent reporting.
Accurate, timely reporting builds a clearer picture of risk, strengthens Police response, and enables better resource allocation over time. Where reporting is inconsistent, gaps appear — and so do repeat patterns of offending.
Where risk still sits
While overall incident numbers are trending down, one area remains a concern: Aggression toward staff.
Our data shows that the highest risk to frontline teams is not during routine presence, but during intervention — particularly when dealing with repeat offenders, breaches of trespass, or individuals affected by drugs or alcohol.
This can include verbal abuse, intimidation, and, at times, physical confrontation. These incidents are most likely to occur during peak periods, reinforcing the need for both visibility and safe, confident engagement strategies.
What this means for retailers
There are a few clear takeaways for retail environments:
- Risk is predictable — and should be planned for accordingly
- Visibility matters — presence alone can prevent incidents
- Early engagement reduces escalation
- Consistent reporting drives better outcomes
- Staff safety risk is highest during intervention, not observation
This reflects a wider shift in retail security — from reactive guarding to proactive, disciplined, and professional practice.
The bottom line
This creates a clear opportunity. As volumes reduce, the advantage shifts to those who execute the basics exceptionally well — visible presence, early engagement, consistent reporting, and confident, professional interactions. These are the levers that now drive disproportionate impact.
But success is not coming from chance — it’s coming from consistency.
Visibility. Engagement. Reporting. Professionalism.
In a more complex environment, the organisations that perform best will be those that apply these fundamentals well — every day, at every site.
At Red Badge, our focus remains on supporting our customers with data-led insight, well informed frontline capability, and a security approach built on prevention — not just response.