Across our network of 21 shopping centres, where our teams manage over 4,000 incidents per quarter, we’re seeing patterns that closely align with what Police are observing nationally. That alignment matters. It means the sector is working from a shared, accurate picture of risk, and can respond more effectively together. This builds on what we’ve shared previously, retail crime isn’t disappearing, but the way it’s showing up is changing, and the response is improving.
What we’re seeing
The overall direction is positive, but not simple:
- Incidents are reducing (down 9% quarter-on-quarter across our network)
- Theft still drives 40–45% of activity, but is trending down
- Physical assaults are reducing
- Verbal aggression toward staff is more present
We’re also seeing consistent patterns: (put below in graphic of some sort)
- Peak incidents in the afternoon (2pm–5pm)
- Secondary peaks at opening and closing times
- Repeat offenders and youth involvement continuing to drive a large portion of incidents
What this tells us, and what aligns with Police insight, is this: Retail crime is not random. It is predictable, patterned, and increasingly understood. This is where the shift is important. As we outlined in our earlier insights, the conversation is moving from “how much crime is happening” to “how well are we controlling it.” The sites seeing the best results aren’t necessarily experiencing less underlying risk, they are managing that risk better.
What’s working (and why outcomes are improving)
Across both our data and Police engagement, improvements are being driven by several consistent practices:
- Early intervention is reducing incidents
Visible presence, proactive engagement, and acting early are stopping incidents before they escalate.
- Better reporting is driving better outcomes
Clearer offender descriptions, faster communication, and better detail are:
- Increasing Police engagement
- Supporting action against repeat offenders
- Improving resolution rates
- Stronger Police partnership is lifting results
Where information is timely and actionable, Police response and follow-through improve with response rates having improved significantly with a 17% uplift in the past 12 months. This is a key shift – and one we are seeing consistently across the environments we support.
The difference-maker: using data to prevent, not just respond
The biggest shift isn’t just more coordination, it’s how data is being used day-to-day. We are using our incident data to:
- Build heatmaps of high-risk locations
- Identify peak times and repeat patterns
- Adjust guard movements, zoning, and deployment in real time
This allows our teams to:
- Be present where incidents are most likely
- Intervene earlier
- Prevent incidents before they escalate
The outcome: A 16% reduction in theft incidents across our network, achieved through better prevention – not reduced exposure. This is where we are seeing the strongest outcomes for customers.
Where we’re focused next
While the direction is positive, there is more to do. Our focus is on continuing to drive outcomes through:
- Stronger retailer engagement: Aligning on what “good” looks like for reporting and communication
- Earlier identification of known offenders: Supporting proactive, coordinated intervention
- High-quality information sharing with Police: Enabling better justice outcomes for repeat offending
- Continuous refinement of data-led deployment: Staying ahead of where and when risk is emerging
This is about ongoing improvement, not just maintaining performance.
Looking ahead
As we’ve seen both locally and through our global insights, the strongest results come from a connected, intelligence-led approach. In New Zealand, we’re now seeing that model take shape:
- Better alignment with Police
- More consistent data
- A stronger focus on early intervention and prevention
At Red Badge Group, we want to help lead that next step. We’re establishing a retail security forum, bringing together shopping centre operators, retailers, security providers, and industry leaders to:
- Share insights and emerging trends
- Align on what works
- Continue improving outcomes together across the sector
If you’d like to understand what these trends mean for your sites – or be part of the conversation – we’d love to connect.